Reliable operation of the Lithuanian power system

Secure power supply is one of the key objectives of the European Union’s energy policy. One of its elements is the adequacy of the power system, which shows whether the capacities and the interconnection of the grids are sufficient to meet the agreed level of needs of the country’s electricity consumers. The assessment of the power system resource adequacy is based on evaluation such factors as the availability of power generating sources and interconnections as well as the load of power grids.

On 19 September 2018, researchers from the Kaunas University of Technology (KTU) Department of Electrical Power Systems presented the first probabilistic adequacy assessment of the Lithuanian power system until 2030 (for the periods 2019–2025 and 2025–2030). The study showed that from 2025 onwards, the lack of reliably available local generation to ensure the adequacy of the Lithuanian power system will become especially relevant, and one of the key challenges will be to meet the growing demand of the country’s electricity consumers in the face of declining capacity of reliably available electricity generating power plants, thusdevelopment of reliable local capacities is necessary to ensure the adequacy and reliability of the power system. In addition, smooth operation of the Baltic power system and reliable power supply will have to be ensured following the launch of synchronous operation with the electricity network of continental Europe in 2025. A summary of the probabilistic adequacy assessment of the Lithuanian power system until 2030 can be found at this link. Study presentation slides can be found by clicking this link.

In November 2018, taking into account the assessment of the adequacy of the Lithuanian power system until 2030, the Ministry of Energy approached existing and potential market participants with regard to the development of new generation capacities. Market participants were requested to provide information on their plans to develop reliably available generation capacities of over 10 MW, to be launched by 2024. The letter of the Ministry of Energy can be found here: in Lithuanian, in English.

In April 19, the updated study ‘Probabilistic Assessment of the Adequacy of the Lithuanian Power System for 2019–2030’ prepared by the KTU researchers and the probabilistic assessment of the reliable operation of the Lithuanian power system until 2030 identified a lack of a reliably available local generation to ensure the adequacy of the Lithuanian power system from 2025, achieving the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) value of 8 h/year.

In addition, the Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (pan-European monitoring assessment of power system resource adequacy) of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) predicts that in 2025, there is a 5% probability that the LOLE in Lithuania may increase to 29.5 h/year.

In July 2020, the KTU researchers by the order of Lithuanian transmission system operator LITGRID AB have preparedthe updated study ‘Probabilistic Assessment of the Adequacy of the Lithuanian Power System for 2019–2030’ (you can get acquainted with the updated study and related information here). By this study the Assessment of the Adequacy of the Lithuanian Power System that has been performed in 2019 was renewed. The updated Assessment identifies a lack of a reliably available local generation to ensure the adequacy of the Lithuanian power system from 2025.

The results of the probabilistic analysis of the adequacy of the Lithuanian power system and the assessment of the adequacy forecast performed by ENTSO-E allowed identifying the challenges that will emerge following the de-synchronization of the Lithuanian power system from the IPS/UPS system in 2025. In order to ensure the reliable operation of the Lithuanian power system and a sufficient level of security of power supply following 2025, it was decided to implement a capacity mechanism.

Press releases:

2017 06 01

Ž. Vaičiūnas: Baltijos regione nuo 2025 m. reikės naujų patikimų elektrinių

2018 11 12

Vertinamos rinkos galimybės plėtoti vietinę lanksčią elektros energijos gamybą

2018 09 19

KTU mokslininkų studija: Lietuvai būtina patikimai prieinamų efektyvių vietinių pajėgumų plėtra