Prepared Study on the Potential of Heating and Cooling in Lithuania
The study on the potential of heating and cooling in Lithuania was prepared at the request of the Ministry of Energy, and its results should be significant for the further formation of the country's energy efficiency and renewable energy resource development policies in the heating sector.
During the study, actual heating and cooling consumption in all major sectors of the country's economy was thoroughly analyzed. Considering the long-term policy measures outlined in strategic documents, the basic changes in heating and cooling consumers, the pace of building renovation, the direction of energy consumption efficiency improvement, climate change, and other factors, a detailed forecast of heating and cooling demand changes in separate consumer sectors was performed for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. The study also analyzed existing heating and cooling supply and production capacities, infrastructure, and possibilities for improving their efficiency, taking into account economic growth, anticipated changes in demand in the long-term perspective, and the goal to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
"We see that heating and cooling energy accounts for as much as 40% of the energy consumed in Lithuania, so policy measures to increase energy efficiency in this area would have a significant impact on improving Lithuania's overall energy productivity. The study is important not only for achieving the obligations set by the European Union and Lithuania's strategic goals in the fields of energy efficiency and renewable energy development but also for achieving significant results that are crucial in the long-term perspective to reach climate neutrality goals," said Deputy Minister of Energy Inga Žilienė.
The heating and cooling sectors are among the most important in terms of final energy consumption structure both in Lithuania and at the European Union level. It was found that heating and cooling energy demand (consumption) accounts for as much as 41% (25,7 TWh) of Lithuania's total annual final energy consumption. In terms of individual sectors, it was determined that the most heating and cooling energy is needed for households - 51% (13,2 TWh) of the total heating and cooling energy, for the industrial sector - 32% (8,2 TWh), and for the service sector - 17% (4,3 TWh).
Being among the largest final energy consumers, the heating and cooling sectors have a significant impact on national strategic goals related to increasing energy efficiency and reducing climate change and air pollution. The study found that the greatest potential for the development of renewable energy resources (RES) and energy efficiency improvement lies in the decentralized heating sector. To achieve Lithuania's strategic energy goals by 2050, it is necessary to apply complex and coordinated cross-sectoral measures aimed at reducing heating consumption (building modernization), developing the production of renewable energy resources in the decentralized heating sector, increasing the efficiency of heating production infrastructure, promoting the development of carbon capture technologies, and transforming the natural gas sector while reducing the share of fossil fuels.
Potential for Increasing the Efficiency of Centralized Heating Supply
Centralized heating supply accounts for approximately one-third (10,2 TWh) of final heating and cooling energy consumption, and the share of RES in this segment's energy structure is about 79%. This is one of the best indicators in the entire European Union, which will continue to improve with the implementation of already planned investments in new RES and waste incineration capacities, as well as the solutions for the utilization of waste heat.
Potential for Increasing the Efficiency of Decentralized Heating Supply
The share of RES is significantly lower (~50%) in decentralized heating supply, which accounts for the remaining two-thirds (15,5 TWh) of final heating and cooling energy consumption. In households, 7,7 TWh of total heating and cooling energy is produced and consumed in a decentralized manner, with the share of RES in this segment's energy structure being about 69%. Although the share of RES is relatively high, about half of it consists of inefficient biomass boilers that pollute Lithuania's environment with particulate matter. Additionally, the remaining 31% consists of fossil fuel boilers (~120,000 residents, of which 75,000 use natural gas boilers). The main long-term efficiency improvement tasks in the household sector are related to reducing heating energy demand through measures outlined in the long-term building renovation strategy and transforming inefficient and fossil fuel production sources into efficient and non-polluting heating production technologies.
The service sector consumes the smallest share of total heating and cooling consumption - 2 TWh. Nearly half (~56%) of the service sector still heats by burning fossil fuels. As in the household sector, the main long-term efficiency improvement tasks in the service sector are related to reducing heating energy demand and replacing polluting and fossil fuel production sources with efficient and non-polluting heating production technologies. Additionally, the service sector is expected to see the largest increase in cooling demand, which could reach 3,4 TWh by 2050, and there is potential for implementing centralized cooling supply solutions.
The industrial sector consumes 5,8 TWh of total heating and cooling energy, most of which is not used for space heating. The vast majority of energy is consumed for processes and production. Since the industry uses energy with specific parameters (e.g., very high temperatures), most of it (~74%) is produced using fossil fuels. Consequently, the main energy efficiency improvement tasks are related to the implementation of technologies that allow the replacement of fossil fuels with RES and the development of carbon capture technologies.
The study was prepared by Vilnius Economics UAB, a company specializing in economic modeling, econometrics, and data analysis, and their application in evaluating public sector policy measures.
About the project. 2014-2021 Norwegian Financial Mechanism program "Environment, Energy, Climate Change." Project No. LT05-3-EM-TF-001 "Creation of an Interactive Platform for Efficient and Balanced Energy Production Planning".
Last updated: 05-06-2024
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